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Disproportionate Sales Growth in Corona Times - Coincidence or Clear Case?

Do you know the book "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Wikipedia describes the content as follows [1]: "According to Taleb, a "black swan" refers to an event that is rare and highly improbable.

The author deals with the often extreme consequences of these rare and improbable events (outliers) and the human trait of finding simple and understandable explanations for these events after the fact."

I think we can all agree that the pandemic impact on our lives in recent months was not anticipated by any of us in this drastic way.

Not from us at bazuba either. In Austria, we shut down the business completely for almost 7 weeks. We ran through scenarios to be prepared for all eventualities of reduced and changed business. We measured, zoomed, teamt and filled Excel files with figures hour after hour and were in close dialog with our partner.

We had a big spotlight on three new partners who opened their franchises on Monday, 2/3/2020 after their training - in other words, went "live". 5 weeks before the lockdown!

And what happened? What has arrived from what we have thought about - what we were prepared for... - nothing! - Quite the opposite - our partners are proverbial "upper lower lip" or "full for the next 3 months" - no Corona influence!

The Fiat Ducato is in 2nd place overall in the May registration statistics; not because tradesmen were so busy buying the vehicles, but rather because so many motorhomes were sold in the month.[2] Only the Golf was registered more frequently.

And when you think about it all (see also Taleb), it suddenly seems quite clear why people invest in their house or in a mobile home.

We have been conditioned to: Stay home, be hygienic - vacation out the door, don't fly, don't take a cruise ship.

And yes - we also hear the warning words of a second wave, or of the impending wave of insolvencies[3].

Only - we at bazuba are experiencing the stark opposite of economic weakness - each of our three new partners has gotten off to a better start than any other partner ever has. All of our partners have experienced sales growth in recent years and (of course) months, some of a significant nature. This is certainly also due to the fact that we have a great franchise system - but more to the fact that we are in the right business field, with the right (not so quickly imitated) products on the road AND - of course, the demographic situation of the "craft development" for us "plays"

From our point of view, the issue of Corona - is an important one - namely that showed us how resistant we were to this "black swan". Nevertheless - the stability and success of our partners does not come from this resistance, but from the many different factors, such as product, costing, USP and demographics. And that honestly - makes us proud - and lets us pursue our vision every day.

[1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_Schwarze_Schwan_(Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb)

[2] https://www.kfz-betrieb.vogel.de/bestseller-im-mai-fiat-ducato-springt-auf-gesamtplatz-zwei-a-938041/

[3] https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/folgen-der-pandemie-der-geier-kreist-warum-vielen-deutschen-unternehmen-die-pleite-droht/26026754.html?ticket=ST-13744213-yEwCigsz94o0DWFbgcFb-ap6

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